| Rafe's 8 Predictions
for 2002 |
|
2001 saw the first Symbian
6 product in the Nokia
9210, and all that involved, so what does the future hold for
this device and Symbian in general. Your all seeing webmaster
makes some dogy predictions for the year 2002. (We can all
have a good laugh this time year when I am proved completey wrong...!
1. More Symbian OS devices (at least 3 on the market, and upto
5 more rumoured or announced).
 With
the Nokia 9290 promised in Q2 2002, and the Nokia 7650 due about
the same time, it only needs one of the other rumoured devices to
appear for this prediction to come true. My money is on the Sanyo
device or alternatively a Sony Ericsson offering. Symbian have long
said that there upto 20 devices on the way. Even assuming that this
include far off devices the second part of this prediction may be
a little pessimistic, however I think we likely to see devices announced
from Sanyo, Sony Ericsson (x2), Motorola, and Nokia. Symbian have
already labelled 2002 as the year the Smartphone and with their
Hurricane OS due to be announced shortly they are probably right.
The majority of the devices will be Smartphones, with the exceptions
being the 9290 and I expect there to be one other non-Smartphone
device.
2. Symbian release Huuricane as part of overhaul it aims and
strategy.
Symbian are due to announce Hurricane soon. Hurricane will be the
OS to power the smartphones of 2002 and may well go hand in hand
with Nokia Series 50 (at least on the 7650, if not elsewhere). Hurricane
will be a version of Symbian 6.1 or possibly 6.2. The OS running
the 9210 is essentially the same (although an older version), but
the GUI is different. This is part of Symbian's repositioning, that
occurred towards the end of last year away from distinct categories
of devices and towards an OS suited to each device with individually
manufacturers choosing what they want. Smartphone (based on Pearl)
will be the most popular, a Quartz like device may appear, and the
9210 in the Crystal category is unlikely to be joined by a similar
device. Symbian will increase in strength and revenue streams should
come online as liscense payments start coming in.
3. Symbian gets more partners, strategic alliances and joint
agreements.
 Some
have commented that all Symbian seems to do is announce strategic
alliance, be it with Macromedia over Flash or with Beatnik over
audio engines. This trend is bound to continue, especially as all
parts of the IT sector realise just how big the smartphone/ combined
PDA & phone sector is going to become. Many will side with Symbian
as they have the most liscensees. Symbian will increasingly been
seen as the way of getting your technology on the the next
generation super mobile from Nokia, Ericsson Sony, Motrola, Sanyo,
and all the others.
4. Nokia 9210i corrects some of the worst problems of the 9210.
 The
Nokia 9210i has been much rumoured. The general consensus it will
come with more memory and a faster processor. In addition GRPS,
Bluetooth and USB have been mentioned at one time or other, I think
maybe one or at the most two out the three. If we do see
these it means that the Symbian 6.1 OS will be being used. Hopefully
we hear about this device soon. Estimates from a simialr time to
the 9290 to 2003! Either way a machine that's faster and has more
memory will most defientely be welcomed. Unfortunately I think we
might have to wait to at least the second half of the year if not
even longer.
5. A LOT more software for the 9210/9290
 As
with all new devices the 9210 is lacking the software coverage of
other PDA's. With about 150 software title available now I expect
this to increase to around 400 by the end of the year. The introduction
of the 9290 will help as will a growing userbase of 9210 users that
should reach 2 million by the end of the year. The 9210 will continue
to get some great games and the 9290 launch should see the long
promised Golf, Total Boarding and Football games from Nokia becoming
available.
6. At least 4 new firmware releases for the 9210
The Nokia 9210 was released before it was really ready. This has
meant that before it became a truly stable phone several firmware
release have been necessary. We've gone through 3.18, 3.54, 3.64
and (just) 4.13. I anticipate at least another 4 of these in the
forthcoming year. We may well see major functionality added in aleats
one of these, perhaps MMS. The firmware is stable now, but there
is still room for improvement - firmware 6.11 anyone?
7. Price drop will see Nokia 9210/9290 reach 1 million sales/units.
 The
Nokia 9210 is at expensive beast even with a contract. The lowest
price in the UK in about �400 with contract and �570
without. As the device becomes more settled I predict the price
will drop to around �300 and �470 respectively. This
will encourage new users and the overall user base will increase
which should be good for everyone. Canalys reported that around
230,00 were sold in the H2 of 2001, so we can expect around 1 million
units sold altogether by the end of the year. This will be helped
by the 9290 becoming available in the US. The Nokia 9210 does not
have serious competition in its class (as a combined phone PDA with
keyboard) and this probably won't change this year. It will also
have the advantage of being the only symbian product using OS 6
for at least 4 months. (Something tells me I might being a bit optimistic...)
8. 3rd Party Hardware Acessories become available for 9210/9290
As a result of the increasing userbase more third party hardware
acessories will become available or be supported. Irma, the vaopurware
concept will see the light of day, and more plug in extras will
also be available. These may include GPS, mouse and more.
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Copyright
(�) Rafe Blandford
2000-2001 ���| ����Last modified: February 05 2002.